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7,581 real Copilot pull requests show that most agent work happens before a developer ever intervenes

AspireAI community · arXiv preprint
Coding-agent research almost always measures autonomous runs on benchmarks, which is not how developers actually work. This study looks at 7,581 Copilot-authored pull requests with public session data, covering 1,602 repositories, and traces how humans and the agent shared the work. The headline is that intervention is the exception, not the rule: 58% of these pull requests had no human intervention at all, and when a developer did step in, collaboration was brief, with a median of two human-AI loops. A pull request needed a median of 44 iterations in total, but 35 of them happened in the very first trajectory, before anyone typed anything. The trajectory after the first human intervention drops by 20.8 iterations and 8.4 minutes, while later interventions barely move the numbers - most of the actual work is done before the human arrives. Merged pull requests consistently started with fewer iterations than unmerged ones, which is the practical read for anyone tuning an agent harness: the initial trajectory, not the back-and-forth, is where a request succeeds or fails. Caveat: the manually coded ground truth covers a 14-PR sample, and pull requests skew toward bug fixes.
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