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PROBE measured coding agents against 2,457 real maintainer-fixed bugs and found recall below 21 percent and precision below 9 percent

AspireAI community · arXiv (LogicStar.ai, ETH Zurich)
*Coding agents are widely deployed for proactive bug discovery, but their ability to find the bugs human maintainers would actually repair across a repository had not been studied.* PROBE is a benchmark of all 2,457 bugs fixed over 18 months across 20 GitHub repositories, together with a method for matching candidate findings to that partial reference set. Across frontier models the agents all achieved recall below 21 percent and precision below 9 percent against the reference set. Stronger models increased recall substantially from 8 to 17 percent but did not improve precision. Despite the low precision, LLM and human evaluators still judged 85 percent of findings valid. The key finding is distributional: the bugs agents find look similar across agents, but differ substantially from the bugs maintainers actually fix - which makes PROBE a useful measure of what these tools do and do not cover.
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