An agent turned a hurricane forecast into a crop-loss estimate for each county, matching held-out insurance payouts to within 2 percent
AspireAI community · arXiv
WxCrop is described as the first agent that judges agricultural hazards from physically interpretable weather indices examined by causal analysis, and the first to combine weather and agricultural records to predict crop loss for both past and forecast dates. It was demonstrated in Florida across hurricanes, freezes and dry heat, with a loss model calibrated per hazard on USDA Risk Management Agency insurance payouts and extended to other hazards and areas by the same procedure. Three checks back it: the hurricane index separates recorded tropical-cyclone days from other days at AUC 0.98, predicted losses summed over storm county-months matched the recorded total to within 2 percent in held-out years, and independent county citrus production records ordered by the model reached a rank correlation of 0.63 across 110 county-seasons and 0.78 across the 11 counties of the Ian season. The scope is one state, three hazards and one loss source, and every number the agent returns is a receipt against a named dataset rather than a free-form inference.
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Two sparse-autoencoder analyses have resisted scaling: matching semantically similar features across layers, and compressing large feature circuits into interpretable supernodes. This paper argues both are the same underlying problem, estimating semantic distances between SAE features that sit on different activation manifolds. Its representation treats each feature not as a single decoder vector but as an activation-weighted distribution over the hidden states expressing it, projects those distributions into a shared reference space, and compares them with Wasserstein distance. The representation is proved invariant to activation rescaling and stable under perturbation, and recovers true matches under finite-sample margin conditions. Empirically it outperformed decoder-vector and LLM-based baselines and captured subtle functional distinctions between related features, and it compressed large feature circuits into interpretable supernodes automatically. The limitation is that this is interpretability tooling: the paper demonstrates better feature matching and circuit compression, not that downstream interpretability claims become more accurate.