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An agent that forms explicit causal beliefs improved its next-day return ranking by 25.4 percent over a baseline agent

AspireAI community · arXiv (Wu & Lu)
Most agent memory systems store records and summaries. CauProphet instead maintains Causal Cognition, a persistent body of causal knowledge, and builds a Causal Belief for each task that combines what it knows with current evidence, capturing causal factors and the effect of possible actions; the belief and the knowledge base update as observations arrive, so the learning persists across tasks. In financial research that translated into a 25.4 percent improvement in mean rank correlation with next-day returns over a baseline agent, and a jump in prediction accuracy from 21.3 to 28.6 percent in dynamic real-world settings. The limitation is that every quantified result here comes from finance: the claim that the same causal machinery transfers to scientific and everyday tasks is supported by experiments the abstract reports without numbers, so the finance figures should not be read as general accuracy.
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One distance function matched sparse-autoencoder features across layers and compressed feature circuits into supernodes
Two sparse-autoencoder analyses have resisted scaling: matching semantically similar features across layers, and compressing large feature circuits into interpretable supernodes. This paper argues both are the same underlying problem, estimating semantic distances between SAE features that sit on different activation manifolds. Its representation treats each feature not as a single decoder vector but as an activation-weighted distribution over the hidden states expressing it, projects those distributions into a shared reference space, and compares them with Wasserstein distance. The representation is proved invariant to activation rescaling and stable under perturbation, and recovers true matches under finite-sample margin conditions. Empirically it outperformed decoder-vector and LLM-based baselines and captured subtle functional distinctions between related features, and it compressed large feature circuits into interpretable supernodes automatically. The limitation is that this is interpretability tooling: the paper demonstrates better feature matching and circuit compression, not that downstream interpretability claims become more accurate.
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