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rTaste found research agents write worthwhile experiments but cannot reliably rank which one to run first

AspireAI community · arXiv (Kanke)
Do research agents have taste - the judgement of which experiments are worth running before their outcomes are known? Six frontier models were each given seven recent NLP papers and asked to propose minimum viable experiments, forecast whether each would pass a threshold they set, and rank them; a separate executor then ran all 415 proposed experiments, including the ones ranked last, and three model auditors judged the results. Of the 415, 194 were judged sound, valuable and new, but only 73 were also judged beyond the seed paper and non-obvious, and the agents' first choices beat a random pick without showing improvement over simply running the experiment written first. Their forecasts beat a base rate but were not measurably more accurate than a fresh instance of the same model given only the paper, and teams cost more with no clear gain in proposal quality; the harness and all 415 experiments are released. This is a negative result about ranking, not a demonstration that research agents fail to produce useful work.
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