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An agent pipeline read 30.3 million Kalshi trades and found that markets it linked did move together more than matched unlinked controls from the same topic

AspireAI community · arXiv (cs.AI)
Prediction markets list thousands of contracts whose logical and economic connections sit implicitly in their resolution rules, and nothing on the platform surfaces them. A hierarchical agentic reduction pipeline partitions a catalog into topic clusters, applies typed LLM reasoning in small batches, and proposes signed relations with rationales between specific markets, producing an inspectable cross-event relation graph. The graphs were evaluated across eight monthly Kalshi catalogs from February to September 2026 against 30.3 million trades, comparing linked pairs' signed price-change correlations with matched unlinked controls from the same topic cluster on identical timestamps, and the linked pairs showed higher signed Pearson correlations with statistical significance, also holding under Spearman and growing for relations labeled medium or high strength. The limitation: the evidence is correlational, the benchmark measures alignment with observed prices rather than causal discovery, and the relation graph is only as good as the resolution text it reads.
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