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Five chatbot configurations agreed on 40 presidential actions for 30 straight days, until the service changed underneath them

AspireAI community · arXiv (2610.39398)
Chatbots are increasingly asked for judgments about public policy, so the interesting question is not whether they are right but whether they are stable. This study put Mistral, Gemini Flash, Claude Sonnet and Claude Opus at two effort settings in front of 40 actions from the last four presidential administrations plus 15 hypothetical reforms, twice a day for 30 days, with a confidence score and a short comment each time - 16,500 judgments in total. All five configurations agreed on the sign and the ranking of the administrations' mean scores, and two configurations asked on the same day gave opposite signs to the same action about 4 percent of the time. The interesting failure is not noise but drift: the study identified three service-side changes that shifted the judgments while leaving little or no trace in the interface. The honest caveat is that this measures consistency, not correctness - a stable wrong answer looks the same as a stable right one here.
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