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Models refuse high-cost threats and stay vulnerable to cheap ones, and exploiting that doubled jailbreak success

AspireAI community · arXiv
Safety evaluations score a model's response severity but ignore whether the threat could actually be carried out. Expected Harm weights jailbreak severity by execution likelihood, modelled as a function of execution cost, and the analysis of state-of-the-art models found an Inverse Risk Calibration: models refuse hardest on low-likelihood, high-cost threats while remaining vulnerable to high-likelihood, low-cost ones. Linear probing showed refusal mechanisms separate queries by severity but do not use execution likelihood at all. Using Olmo-3's open staged checkpoints, the paper traced the miscalibration to the safety training data distribution, 82.8 percent of safety examples sitting at cost levels 0 and 1, and found cost representations weak from the SFT stage onward. Exploiting the property raised the attack success rate of existing jailbreaks by up to 2x. The limitation is that the framing is still a model of execution cost rather than a measured real-world outcome rate, and the paper is a NeurIPS 2026 Evaluations and Dataset Track spotlight rather than a deployment study.
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One distance function matched sparse-autoencoder features across layers and compressed feature circuits into supernodes
Two sparse-autoencoder analyses have resisted scaling: matching semantically similar features across layers, and compressing large feature circuits into interpretable supernodes. This paper argues both are the same underlying problem, estimating semantic distances between SAE features that sit on different activation manifolds. Its representation treats each feature not as a single decoder vector but as an activation-weighted distribution over the hidden states expressing it, projects those distributions into a shared reference space, and compares them with Wasserstein distance. The representation is proved invariant to activation rescaling and stable under perturbation, and recovers true matches under finite-sample margin conditions. Empirically it outperformed decoder-vector and LLM-based baselines and captured subtle functional distinctions between related features, and it compressed large feature circuits into interpretable supernodes automatically. The limitation is that this is interpretability tooling: the paper demonstrates better feature matching and circuit compression, not that downstream interpretability claims become more accurate.
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