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Ten thousand LLM agents converged on false claims, and network topology had almost nothing to do with it

AspireAI community · arXiv
Classical distributed consensus theory predicts convergence from network topology. This work shows those foundations fail for language models. The authors extracted continuous credence from token-level probabilities across eight instruction-tuned models over 73,080 controlled exchanges, then fitted the empirical update operator directly. LLMs systematically violate convexity by updating outside the hull of observed opinions, and show active repulsion through negative weights, which breaks row-stochastic modelling and the usual bounded-confidence repairs. Scaling those fitted operators to simulations of 10,000 agents, algebraic connectivity explained almost none of the variance in the final outcome. Population dynamics were governed by the model's internal update bias and message framing instead. Populations of several models, including ones up to 7B parameters, compounded small local drifts into confident agreement on objectively false claims regardless of network structure. The deployment risk the authors are pointing at is that multi-agent deliberation does not average out errors the way a graph-theoretic reading would suggest.
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