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A zero-shot traffic forecaster that learns the road graph cut forecast error 34.0 percent against the closest prior-data-fitted model

AspireAI community · arXiv
Supervised graph-based traffic forecasters are strong but locked to one dataset and one sensor graph, so deploying them to a new or evolving road network is costly. Prior-data fitted networks offer a zero-shot alternative by learning in-context inference from synthetic task priors, but existing forecasting PFNs never encode the graph structure that governs traffic. GAS-PFN folds sampled road topology into the synthetic prior via random-walk diffusion and pairs it with a two-pass mask-conditioned architecture over a shared Transformer backbone, separating sensor-specific temporal dynamics from interactions between neighbouring sensors. Across six benchmarks at a 90-minute horizon it cuts MSE by 34.0 percent on average against TimePFN, its closest PFN-based predecessor, and by 27.7 percent against four recent industry-built general-purpose zero-shot forecasters, with every model given the same 90 minutes of contiguous history.
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