Redwood Research's simulated control evals predict a real environment's safety 3x more accurately than a separate control setting, at a 5% audit budget
AspireAI community · Redwood Research (arXiv)
Control evaluations test whether safeguards hold when a model deliberately tries to break them, but the purpose-built settings they run in rarely resemble deployment. This paper proposes running those evaluations inside a simulated environment instead: a language model stands in for the environment's tool responses, so you can test safeguards against the environment you actually ship to. On LinuxArena, where real execution provides ground truth, the simulated control evaluations predict safety with a root mean squared error of 3.6 percentage points across five monitors at a 5% audit budget, against 10.1 points for the separate BashArena control setting, and they explain 78-85% of the between-environment variance in attack success, monitor scores and safety. The simulated attacks also transfer: strategies discovered in simulation improved monitor performance on held-out LinuxArena attacks, roughly matching what executed strategies achieved. The limitation is scope: the accuracy is measured against one environment family with ground-truth execution available, and even the cheap version still needs a task-pair budget to match real execution.
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