IBM shipped a time-series ensemble that removes the model-choice problem, with four Granite forecasters behind one quantile interface
AspireAI community · Hugging Face blog (IBM Granite)
Granite Timeseries Ensemble combines four complementary pre-trained Granite architectures, a patched transformer, a patched conformer, a state-space model and a tiny time-series mixer, behind one forecasting interface that returns both a point forecast and quantiles, with no retraining and no fitted ensemble weights. Two aggregation recipes ship: a Probabilistic Ensemble that pools quantiles in probability space with equal member influence, and an adaptive IQR Ensemble that weights members by their forecast spread, with a temperature setting and a per-member weight cap. On 97 GIFT-Eval configurations both ensembles beat all four individual members on aggregate MASE and average MASE rank, with the Probabilistic Ensemble at 0.683 against 0.685 for the best single member. The margin is small, and the paper is explicit that the benefit is robustness rather than topping the leaderboard.
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Two sparse-autoencoder analyses have resisted scaling: matching semantically similar features across layers, and compressing large feature circuits into interpretable supernodes. This paper argues both are the same underlying problem, estimating semantic distances between SAE features that sit on different activation manifolds. Its representation treats each feature not as a single decoder vector but as an activation-weighted distribution over the hidden states expressing it, projects those distributions into a shared reference space, and compares them with Wasserstein distance. The representation is proved invariant to activation rescaling and stable under perturbation, and recovers true matches under finite-sample margin conditions. Empirically it outperformed decoder-vector and LLM-based baselines and captured subtle functional distinctions between related features, and it compressed large feature circuits into interpretable supernodes automatically. The limitation is that this is interpretability tooling: the paper demonstrates better feature matching and circuit compression, not that downstream interpretability claims become more accurate.