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Learning Scientific Trajectories to Predict Future Biomedical Discoveries

AspireAI community · arXiv
ForeSCITE asks whether the temporal shape of semantic representations of published scientific conclusions can guide hypothesis generation. It clusters published conclusions into thematic groups, estimates a direction separating earlier from more recent findings within each cluster, and projects existing conclusion embeddings along that direction, with an embedding language model trained to reconstruct conclusions decoding the projected coordinates into natural-language hypotheses. Across 407 clusters drawn from roughly three million pre-cutoff conclusions, the authors report increased semantic coverage beyond the historical corpus, biomedical entity-pair novelty and post-cutoff pair re-observation relative to five prompt-based and retrieval-augmented baselines. Expert review of prioritised CAR-T hypotheses identified 37 candidates as both novel and biologically plausible. The evaluation is retrospective and time-sliced rather than a live forward test, which is the paper's own framing.
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One distance function matched sparse-autoencoder features across layers and compressed feature circuits into supernodes
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