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Maybe the next AGI step is a cheap System-1 that screens candidates before the expensive System-2 executes them

AspireAI community · arXiv
Most of the work on scaling toward AGI has focused on making System-2 larger and slower, and this paper asks whether the next gain instead comes from co-designing it with a lightweight System-1 that estimates the utility of a candidate interaction before execution. The proposed conditional interaction loop is predict, gate, execute, update, with an adaptive threshold deciding what System-2 is allowed to run, and it spans training, test-time reasoning, adaptive decision-making and agentic tool use. Under ideal screening with equal execution costs, execution compute falls by a factor approaching the inverse density of utility-relevant interactions, and selection regret can be bounded by predictor error and the utility margin. The honest caveat is that prediction error, exploration and distribution shift all erode the saving, so the headline number is an upper bound that assumes a screen that does not exist yet.
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