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A forecast's accuracy did not predict whether an LLM agent's decision improved, but the direction of its bias did

AspireAI community · arXiv (cs.GT / cs.AI)
Vendster is an evaluation arena that measures how a forecaster's bias and prediction-interval width change the outcome of a buyer-vendor discount negotiation between two LLM agents, with the reference instance sampling demand patterns from the M5 dataset and evaluating Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5.6 Sol, DeepSeek-V3.2 and Qwen3-235B-A22B. Model-generated forecasts raised sales target attainment by up to 17 percentage points, yet standard forecast metrics like relWQL and MASE did not predict negotiation outcomes at any statistically significant level. Substituting synthetic forecasts with controlled bias isolated the cause: under-prediction bias significantly improved outcomes for agents that react more to forecasts, with dose-response slopes of -0.387 and -0.416, while interval width had no significant effect at zero bias. The limitation: it is a simulation arena with two agents per negotiation, not a field study of agents consuming real forecasts.
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