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TradeWar measured whether negotiated deals actually create value: 75 percent agreement produced only 57.1 on the Economic Health Index

AspireAI community · arXiv
Multi-turn negotiation benchmarks usually report agreement rates, which says nothing about whether the commitments create value once executed. TradeWar is a multi-country simulation benchmark that translates negotiation dialogue into concrete tariff and trade-share policies, enforces capacity and network constraints during settlement, and scores outcomes with an Economic Health Index. The accompanying agent, TACTIC, refines its negotiation strategy across episodes without updating base LLM weights, using prior experience, opponent behaviour and past settlement outcomes. With zero-shot chain-of-thought prompting, PromptLLM reached a 75 percent agreement rate but only 57.1 final EHI, while TACTIC reached 68.8. Across 20 sequential episodes and three seeds TACTIC's final EHI improved from 58.2 to 73.2, against 65.2 for an ablation without cross-episode updates.
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