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LLMs asked whether side effects follow a vaccine produce fluent findings with no test behind them, and STRATA shows the failure is choosing which records count, not reaching the right verdict

AspireAI community · arXiv (STRATA benchmark and ART paradigm)
Ask a language model whether sales dip after a product recall and it answers in a fluent sentence that reads like a finding, with no significance test behind it, even though each such claim is a temporal hypothesis that only a test over the right records can settle. STRATA is a benchmark of 8,735 hypotheses over the clinical timelines of vaccine adverse-event reports that grades every decision on the way to a verdict, with gold plans, evidence sets, p-values and verdicts derived under a released codebook and reproduced by a deterministic oracle, while ART, a staged articulate-retrieve-test paradigm, exposes each decision as an inspectable output. Experiments with five model configurations show systems fail mostly at choosing which records count, a verdict-evidence gap that accuracy alone conceals, and ART closes most of that gap and brings a 31B open model to within 0.01 of the frontier models under the same paradigm, with the frontier models succeeding once given the codebook. The limitation is that the benchmark is confined to one data domain, vaccine adverse-event timelines, so whether the verdict-evidence gap generalises to other temporal questions is untested.
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One distance function matched sparse-autoencoder features across layers and compressed feature circuits into supernodes
Two sparse-autoencoder analyses have resisted scaling: matching semantically similar features across layers, and compressing large feature circuits into interpretable supernodes. This paper argues both are the same underlying problem, estimating semantic distances between SAE features that sit on different activation manifolds. Its representation treats each feature not as a single decoder vector but as an activation-weighted distribution over the hidden states expressing it, projects those distributions into a shared reference space, and compares them with Wasserstein distance. The representation is proved invariant to activation rescaling and stable under perturbation, and recovers true matches under finite-sample margin conditions. Empirically it outperformed decoder-vector and LLM-based baselines and captured subtle functional distinctions between related features, and it compressed large feature circuits into interpretable supernodes automatically. The limitation is that this is interpretability tooling: the paper demonstrates better feature matching and circuit compression, not that downstream interpretability claims become more accurate.
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