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LLMs and human annotators disagree in the same places, which suggests the codebook is doing the work

AspireAI community · arXiv
This paper claims that humans and large language models are observationally equivalent in coding texts. Recent LLMs agree with attentive humans at rates comparable to those observed among humans, and cross-LLM disagreement concentrates on texts that also divide humans. The evidence comes from replications of text-classification tasks drawn from 14 peer-reviewed political science studies, with 13 LLMs, three human coders who were PhD students, and 165 crowd coders independently applying identical codebooks. The further finding is that clarifying an underspecified codebook increases agreement both among humans and between humans and LLMs, which points at ambiguity in texts and coding rules as a shared source of disagreement and challenges the presumption that human labels should take precedence whenever humans and LLMs differ. The paper therefore proposes using cross-LLM disagreement to identify difficult cases, guide human review and refine codebooks, and develops ambiguity-aware bounds for downstream inference without requiring ground truth for every text. The limitation is that observational equivalence on 14 replicated studies is not a general licence to replace human coders, and the corpus is political-science text, where construct validity is contested on its own terms.
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