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Agents scored 92 percent on the go decision and 19 percent on the stop decision in the same industrial workflow

AspireAI community · arXiv (Shan Peng, Shuaiqi Cheng, Miao Peng, Chenyi Zi, Jia Li, HKUST Guangzhou)
Most agent benchmarks measure whether the task got finished. DMAIC-Bench measures something else: whether the agent stopped when the evidence said it should. It evaluates self-restraint, the ability to act on intermediate evidence by continuing, redirecting or stopping, with 97 seeded tasks across 15 industrial cases in four sectors, built around the explicit statistical prerequisites of Lean Six Sigma. The design uses paired counterfactual variants that require opposite actions at the same workflow position, so indiscriminate stopping is distinguishable from warranted restraint. Execution traces are scored by a private scorer and final claims by independent expert review. The gap is stark. Across 13 models from six providers, execution-level routing accuracy averaged 92 percent on matched GO decisions and 19 percent on NO-GO decisions, counting any forbidden downstream computation as a route error. Execution traces show agents reporting correct diagnostics and then performing the analyses those diagnostics disallow. Separately, blinded expert review of 11 audited agents estimated that reports act on invalid evidence at 47 percent of reached NO-GO decisions, with an interval from 31 to 61 percent. Explicit stopping permission helped some models without consistently restoring correct decisions at both forks. Caveat: the tasks are statistical-prerequisite reasoning scenarios, not general-purpose agent work.
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