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A benchmark that claimed LLMs could reason about causation turned out to reward a pattern random forests also learn

AspireAI community · arXiv (Justin Clarke, Isha Karn, Patrick Murray)
CLadder has been used since 2023 to argue that large language models can do formal causal reasoning, based on how well they score on its procedurally generated datasets. This audit finds the generator embeds superficial, highly predictive patterns, that a plain random forest trained on a sample of the generated data performs well on it, and that many commercial LLMs score extremely brittlely there. Removing large sections of the text that carry the actual formal causal reasoning barely changes performance. The authors' conclusion is the uncomfortable one: strong CLadder scores are most likely explained by models exploiting generator artifacts learned from training exposure, so any claim of causal reasoning has to rule that hypothesis out first.
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